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The Lyxor ETFs on this website are undertakings for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS) (i) domiciled in France and approved by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) or, (ii) domiciled in Luxembourg, approved by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and authorised to market their units or shares in the French Republic in accordance with the notification procedure under Article 93 of Directive 2009/65/EC. Investors should note that the prospectuses of certain Lyxor ETFs under Luxembourg law that have been notified in accordance with this procedure are only available on the website in English. A French translation of these prospectuses can be obtained upon request by sending a letter to Lyxor International Asset Management (“Lyxor”) – 17 Cours Valmy, 92987 Paris La Défense, France.


The information on this website is not intended for persons or entities that are resident, located or registered in jurisdictions that are not authorised to distribute Lyxor ETFs. As a result, the information on this website does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell units or shares in these ETFs by anyone in any jurisdiction:


(a)   in which such an offer or solicitation is unauthorised;

(b)   in which Lyxor is not qualified to make such an offer or solicitation; or 

(c)   in which it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation.


In particular, the Lyxor ETFs on this website are not and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. As such, they may not be offered or sold within the United States of America, except in specific cases where transactions are exempt from registration under the Securities Act. The ETFs listed on this website may not be sold to US citizens or transferred to the United States by any other means, unless this transaction is not subject to any specific registration under US law. 


Any person from a jurisdiction to which the above-mentioned restrictions apply should inform themselves of and observe these restrictions.


This website is intended for commercial purposes and is not regulatory in nature. Although the information provided has been drawn up on the basis of sources considered to be reliable, there is no guarantee that it is accurate, complete or relevant. Some of the information on this website is provided on the basis of market data collected at a specific time and may therefore vary over time. Lyxor advises investors to read the risk factors section of the prospectus and the key investor information document carefully. These documents can be found on the website.


The net asset value (“NAV”) of Lyxor ETFs may at any time be subject to considerable price fluctuations, which in some cases may lead to the loss of all of the capital invested. Investors should note that some ETFs may be sensitive to fluctuations in the exchange rate between their reference currency and that of the underlying index, as well as of the components of the underlying index.


Before investing in a Lyxor ETF, you should carry out your own risk analysis of the product from a legal, tax and accounting perspective, rather than basing your decision solely on the information provided. If necessary, you should consult your own advisers or any other qualified professional. 


Subject to compliance with the legal obligations by which they are bound, Lyxor or any entity within the same group shall not be held liable for any financial or other consequences of an investment in the product. 



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16 Oct 2017

Q4 2017 Outlook: The fairytale continues



At the start of last quarter we considered whether the fairytale of strong performance from equity and bond markets alike could continue. Well... it has so far. But what can we expect for Q4?

Will they all live happily ever after? 

There’s no doubt economic growth has been a plus point this year, with 2017 Bloomberg consensus estimates for the US and eurozone revised up to over 2% and to 1.5% for Japan. Yet low inflation is proving a much trickier problem to remedy across the developed world. 

In all likelihood, central banks will only normalise their monetary policies gradually over the coming months, so there should be no rapid removal of the support they’ve been providing the financial markets. Risk assets are expensive, but as long as economic growth maintains its pace a major correction looks unlikely. And that’s good news for investors.

But where exactly do the best opportunities lie over the coming months?


No bond bonanza

With wage and core inflation expected to pick up in the US over the medium term, the Fed looks likely to stay the course when it comes to normalising its monetary policy. It’s ready to start shrinking its balance sheet in October and a rate hike is pencilled in for December, so we’re slightly underweight treasuries. And with the ECB set to taper slowly throughout 2018 we’re also slightly underweight bunds.


Hop into high yield

European high yield credit remains an interesting option for the less risk-averse bond investor, although historically tight spreads do sound a note of caution. We’re overweight high yield as fundamentals look supportive and we see little chance of a reversal over the next few months.


Full steam ahead for eurozone equities

The relatively poor performance of eurozone equities last quarter was puzzling, but probably due to profit-taking after a period of double-digit gains. The asset class is still trading at a considerable discount to US equities and, with reflation in full swing, we expect foreign and domestic investors to pile back into eurozone equities this quarter, resulting in renewed rises. We’d advocate being selective though; some areas should do better than others. 


Choosing the best areas within the eurozone

Banks continue to heal and should benefit from reflation, while the construction sector looks interesting not only because it’s cheap, but because it should benefit from a pick-up in real estate and infrastructure investment.  Conditions look ripe for households to increase their spending beyond their basic needs, so we still prefer discretionary to staples.

At the country level, we’re big fans of “Macronomics”, hence our slight preference for French rather than German stocks. And, after their long-term underperformance, we also like Greek equities as we believe the eurozone is determined to find a solution to the country’s debt problems.


A selective approach to US equities

The S&P 500 has hit record highs, so there’s no denying US equity valuations are looking even more stretched than they were last quarter. What’s more, they’re vulnerable to the Fed’s balance sheet reduction. And yet fundamentals remain impressive and some risks have passed – for now at least it looks less likely the Trump presidency will fail. The debt ceiling has been raised, and there’s plenty of time to pass tax reform.

With these conflicting drivers, we’re neutral on US equities. But delving deeper we favour some areas of the market over others: for instance, we prefer large-caps over their smaller peers and domestic-focused stocks. We’re bullish on banks over the long term, but low inflation could prove a headwind in Q4.


Overweight Japanese equities for the long run

With the economy on the mend, the Bank of Japan has no reason to alter its accommodative stance. This, combined with foreign investment at low levels, has led us to upgrade our long-term stance towards Japanese equities to positive.

We can’t however recommend a headlong rush into Japan just yet, so it’s more of a tactical play for now. EPS growth is slightly slower than we’d like and the North Korean nuclear threat remains a worry. Yet, periods of renewed yen weakness could offer interesting windows for outperformance.


Go easy on emerging equities

Emerging equities posted some solid gains last quarter, but their performance could soften if Treasury yields rise – as we expect. We’re neutral on the asset class for now. South Korea (which has so far proven resilient to the threat from the North) is our preferred market.


Cautious on commodities

It’s an intricate picture for the price of oil. Risks include a possible increase in supply and a potential US dollar rebound. However, robust global growth should keep demand high while OPEC producers are unlikely to let prices fall far below USD 50 / barrel. Our expectation is for Brent to continue to trade within the USD 47–55 / barrel range, so we’re neutrally positioned.

Since we recommended buying copper last quarter its price has risen by 25%, making it look a lot less attractive for Q4. We’ve downgraded our stance to neutral. Gold also performed well last quarter, but we’re struggling to see catalysts for it to rise much further. We’re keeping it at neutral for hedging purposes. 





*Lyxor CAR,  October 2017.


Our key calls

Our key calls

Key: U/W = underweight, O/W = overweight, s= soft, ST = short-term, LT = long-term

Source: Lyxor CAR, July 2017


All data sourced by: Lyxor & SG Cross Asset Research teams, Ocober  2017. Opinions expressed are as at 12 October 2017. 

This communication is for professional clients only.

This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets In Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC.

This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor International Asset Management or any of their respective affiliates or subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein.

We recommend to investors who wish to obtain further information on their tax status that they seek assistance from their tax advisor. The attention of the investor is drawn to the fact that the net asset value stated in this document (as the case may be) cannot be used as a basis for subscriptions and/or redemptions. The market information displayed in this document is based on data at a given moment and may change from time to time. The figures relating to past performances refer or relate to past periods and are not a reliable indicator of future results. This also applies to historical market data. The potential return may be reduced by the effect of commissions, fees, taxes or other charges borne by the investor.

Lyxor International Asset Management (Lyxor ETF), société par actions simplifiée having its registered office at Tours Société Générale, 17 cours Valmy, 92800 Puteaux (France), 418 862 215 RCS Nanterre, is authorized and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) under the UCITS Directive and the AIFM Directive (2011/31/EU). Lyxor ETF is represented in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658.

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