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Latest from Lyxor

Latest from Lyxor

10 Jan 2020: Geopolitical risks recede

Receding geopolitical risks fuelled risk assets’ rise over the week. Fears about the US-Iran crisis eased on Wednesday after both countries signalled a de-escalation, but the situation remains fragile. Meanwhile, China confirmed that Vice Premier Liu and a delegation will head to Washington next week. In the US, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, while in Europe there was strong appetite for bond auctions in France, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. In the UK, Members of Parliament voted strongly in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, paving the way for the UK’s exit from the EU on 31 January.  

Next week, phase one of the US-China trade deal is set to be signed in Washington, while the biggest banks will kick off US earnings season alongside industrial companies: US companies’ earnings momentum is still negative and there were bigger cuts to S&P 500 earnings estimates than average over the course of the fourth quarter. In Europe, the ECB’s minutes could shed some light on a forthcoming strategic review, but no additional stimulus is expected this year barring a major negative shock to the economy. In Asia, China’s preliminary Q4 GDP release will come under close scrutiny, with growth expected to stabilise at 6% thanks to moderating trade tensions and policy support.

Source: Lyxor International Asset Management. Figures reported in local currency terms. Past performance is no guide to future returns. Data as at

Our key calls

Week commencing 06/01/2020

Benefit from breakevens

A mild cyclical upswing in the US economy seems to be taking shape. We believe there’s room for further upward revisions to inflation expectations, which remained significantly below CPI prints over the past quarter. Factoring in oil prices, we expect base effects to push headline inflation up towards 2.5% in January and anticipate some upside for inflation breakevens in the short term.


Favour cyclical sectors in Europe

With reduced risk of a hard Brexit, easing trade tensions and the manufacturing recession bottoming out, the balance of risks appears to be favourable for European equities at present. The business climate looks set to improve, so we favour cyclical sectors such as autos.

Lyxor STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts UCITS ETF

Buy Chinese equities

Chinese economic activity may be set to improve thanks to the roll-back of the September US tariffs and the front-loading of lending and government investments at the beginning of the year. Global liquidity conditions should also remain supportive of Chinese equities in the first half of the year. 

Things we are watching out for

The Main Event

comming soon

15
July

Coming soon...

Other major events

4 more things to put in the diary

23 Jan

ECB monetary policy meeting

29
Jan

FOMC meeting (with forecasts)

30 Jan

BoE MPC meeting (with report)

31 Jan

BoE Carney mandate ends

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These are the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists as at 23 09 2019. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/ or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to   ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees. Click here for more.