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Latest from Lyxor

Latest from Lyxor

11 Nov 2019: Trade war averted 

There’s been a lot to cheer over the past week. The US and China have reportedly agreed to cancel the additional tariffs imposed on 1 September, and global equities rose sharply as a result, with the MSCI World TR up by 2.55% over the week as at 8 November.  Safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen underperformed, while ten-year US Treasury yields rose by 20bp and the US 3m/10y spread turned positive, pricing out a recession for the first time since April. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 hit an 18-month high, while in China the renminbi rose on optimism about trade.

Next week, Federal Reserve Chair, Powell is set to testify at a House Budget Committee hearing that will focus on the US’s economic outlook, while retail sales figures will also come under scrutiny, particularly after their unexpected fall in September. In Europe, Spain will be in the spotlight at the start of the week as the outcome of Sunday’s election becomes clear, while a flurry of activity data is due to be released in the UK, including Q3 GDP growth, inflation, retail sales and employment figures. A range of data will be published in China, providing the latest clues about how growth is holding up in the wake of the additional US tariffs that took effect throughout September.

Source: Lyxor International Asset Management. Figures reported in local currency terms. Past performance is no guide to future returns. Data as at

Our key calls

Week commencing 08/11/2019

Exploit the yield curve

After the Fed’s latest rate cut, markets are no longer pricing in further cuts in the near future. In fact, green shoots of economic recovery and easing trade tensions are likely to put additional upwards pressure on bond yields. This should favour further steepening of the US yield curve in the short term. Yield curve strategies could be a great way of exploiting this phenomenon.


Bank on banks

Easing political uncertainty in Europe coupled with a cyclical upswing in activity should support European equities in the near term. In particular, this should provide some short-term relief to cyclical sectors such as banks and autos.

Long hard-currency emerging debt

Things seem to be looking up in China, with trade tensions with the US easing and the central bank acting to support the economy, with further easing to come. This means we’re maintaining our tactical long in Chinese equities. Offshore stocks have lagged other markets since the beginning of the year, so may be set to benefit most.

Things we are watching out for

The Main Event

comming soon

15
July

Coming soon...

Other major events

4 more things to put in the diary

10 Nov

Spain general election

19
Nov

Huawei waivers expire

05
Dec

OPEC meeting

11
Dec

FOMC meeting (with forecasts)

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These are the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists as at 23 09 2019. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/ or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to   ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees. Click here for more.